米VC業界動向: 本格回復はまだ先か [VC業界動向]

Dow JonesのVenture Sourceから2009年Q3のVC業界統計データが発表された。残念ながらQ3は再び落ち込んだ。

引用: So much for that venture capital recovery
VentureBeat 2009/10/16

... VCs invested $5.1 billion in 616 deals during Q3. That’s down 38 percent from the $8.2 billion invested during the same period last year, a drop you’d expect. But it’s also down 6 percent from Q2, when VCs invested $5.4 billion, so if there’s going to be a recovery, it isn’t here yet.

... Later-stage deals are becoming a larger piece of the pie, representing 40 percent of all deals this year compared to 33 percent last year. Deals are getting smaller, too, with a median deal size of $5 million, compared to $7 million last year.



... information technology (IT) reclaimed the top spot after being overshadowed by health care last year. Within that IT umbrella, it looks like Web 2.0 investments are continuing — in fact, they beat traditional software investments for the first time.

... On the other hand, investment into renewable energy, another industry that’s getting a lot of headlines in the tech world, fell 73 percent to $343 million.




引用: Q1 venture investing numbers not as dire as they look
April 24, 2009,  by Jorgen Lindqvist

  1. Venture capitalists were asked to stop investing.
    Major limited partners (LPs), or investors in funds, asked their private equity (PE) partners to slow down investing and reduce the number of capital calls. Various LPs had engaged in a popular strategy of accumulating debt, and they did not have the cash on hand to honor every investment commitment after both the equity and debt markets collapsed. The number of first time investments fell by 65 percent from Q1 08 to Q1 09 as venture firms stopped making capital calls in order to preserve relationships with the LPs.
  2. New compliance rules tied up venture capitalists.
    In Q1 09, a large number of LPs asked their PE partners to comply with a mark-to-market accounting rule, FAS 157, which is better at valuing mature private companies with public market comparables than six-month-old startups. Venture capitalists were forced to go through both a time-consuming exercise to value their portfolio and a process to figure out the FAS 157 reporting strategy, distracting partners from new investment opportunities.
  3. Cash-strapped portfolio companies needed saving.
    Only the best portfolio companies could raise money from new investors in Q1 2009. This forced venture capitalists to undergo another time-consuming process of evaluating the fund’s portfolio and identifying which companies to support going forward. Some cash strapped portfolio companies needed immediate support, and venture capitalists did a large volume of “inside rounds,” where existing investors set the terms for new rounds into portfolio companies. Without external validation of a company valuation by a new investor, inside rounds require an internal review process that frequently results in dreaded “cram down rounds,” complex penalty terms, lower valuations, and smaller investment amounts. The average deal size shrank by 30 percent from Q1 08 to Q1 09.


一般にファンド運用者をGP(General Partner)、出資者をLP(Limited Partner)と称し、VCがGPに、機関投資家などの出資者がLPになる。運用成績が良好であればLPが強硬な行動に出ることはあまりないが、運用成績が思わしくない昨今の状況ではLPとしても黙って見てられん、ということのようだ。

日本でも2008年に金融庁がファンドに対して規制をかけたが、米国でも一種の規制強化がなされつつあり、LPがVCに対して投資先企業をFAS 157基準に準じて評価するよう求めているという。FAS 157基準は上場に近い会社を評価する際には妥当だが、創業まもないベンチャー企業まで評価することについてはどうかという懐疑的な声が上がっている。しかし、LPが要求する以上、VCは投資したすべての企業の会計評価をせざるを得ない。評価作業に忙しくて、新しい投資に時間を振り向ける余裕がない、ということらしい。



I believe these are all early indicators that the overall asset class of “venture capital” is being abandoned by limited partners.


先週、New Yorkのダウ工業株30種平均は一時1万ドルの大台を超えるところまで回復した。そうした市場の回復がVC業界にも追い風となることを期待したい。

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